Dec 03

It has been a rather tumultuous week in Australia in terms of climate politics.

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd and opposition leader Malcom Turnbull worked out a deal last week to pass a carbon trading scheme through the Senate, following last August’s rejection of similar legislation. With Senate passage of the bill Rudd could go to Copenhagen poised to be a cooperative party in the effort to reach a global deal.

Former Liberal Party Leader Malcom Turnbull, Photo: Charlie Brewer

Former Liberal Party Leader Malcom Turnbull, Photo: Charlie Brewer

However, in response to Turnbull’s support for the legislation, back bench Liberal members sacked Turnbull as party leader in favor of Tony Abbott who infamously referred to emissions reduction policy as “absolute crap.” This led to defeat of the bill in the Senate yesterday, dealing a huge political blow to Rudd who may now have to face a round of elections next year.

The Liberals remain rather unpopular in Australia and the opposition within the party towards the climate legislation does not pose well for the party’s prospects in case elections are forced. But the result can’t be good for Rudd who was in Washington discussing climate change, among other things, as the turmoil was happening back home.

There will be an interesting by-election in Higgins over the weekend which is being contested by the Liberals and an insurgent Green candidate. Without a member of Rudd’s Labor party in the race, the Green candidate, Clive Hamilton, could take advantage of negative feelings towards the Liberals for killing climate legislation.

While failure to pass legislation will certainly weaken Australia at the talks in Copenhagen, at least one country doesn’t seem particularly phased: the United States.  At a speech in Sydney today, US Ambassador to Australia Jeffery Bleich said that the US is “not disappointed” about the Australian failure.  Rudd and Obama, it seems, can commiserate over their lack of influence in their respective senates.

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Sep 30

Today Senators Boxer and Kerry are officially releasing the draft text of the Senate climate and energy bill.  Among the highlights of the text that was leaked yesterday [.pdf]:

  • A reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to 20% of 2005 levels by 2020.  This would essentially meet US reduction obligations under the Kyoto Protocol.  Of course the US wouldn’t meet the 2012 time line, but this is a relatively strong target.  The House version of the bill calls for only a 17% reduction from 2005.
  • It also appears that the Senate version will give the Environmental Protection Agency more latitude to regulate greenhouse gas emissions.  The EPA is already starting to take an aggressive stance on regulation.  The House bill, however, strips a significant amount of authority from the EPA for instituting greenhouse gas regulation.
  • On the issue of dealing with emissions from transportation, the Senate bill offers grants for transit-oriented development, but according to Streetsblog, it is unclear what proportion of revenue generated from the sale of emissions permits would go to low-carbon transportation (e.g. mass transit, cycling, bus).   The House version advocates around 1%, while many environmentalists argue that a 10% investment would be more sufficient.

On the whole, reports about the Senate bill suggest that it is quite strong.  Obviously the details will change as Senate committees hold hearings later this month.  But if it looks like something close to the draft is passed, it will give the Obama Administration quite a bit of leverage going into international negotiations in Copenhagen later this year.

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