Nov 25

Reuters is reporting that US President Barack Obama will attend the COP15 climate change talks in Copenhagen prior to his trip to Oslo on 10 December to receive the Nobel Peace Prize.    According to Fox, Obama will be at the talks on December 9.

Obama Addresses UN General Assembly; photo: UN

Obama Addresses UN General Assembly; photo: UN

Many people have been calling for leaders to attend the talks.  The argument is that heads of state and government will bring greater urgency to the negotiations and help push through a more robust deal.  Earlier this month Danish Prime Minister Lars Loekke Rasmussen invited leaders of 192 countries to attend the talks, but the timing for this larger gathering of leaders is scheduled for the end of the second week, during the traditional “high level” segment.

Rasmussen’s invitation apparently includes a gala dinner hosted by the Danish queen on Thursday, 17 Dec. followed by negotiations on Friday the 18th–the last day of the conference.

So although Obama will attend COP15, it is unclear with whom he will negotiate.  I am not sure what will be accomplished if he shows up on 9 December, gives a speech, and then doesn’t engage with the other 65 leaders who have already announced their attendance at the high level segment.

In fact, the whole exercise could backfire on the US and contribute to the perception of many critics that they have been dragging their feet during the last year of negotiations.

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Nov 24

Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh visited US President Barack Obama.   In addition to being the guest of honor at the first state dinner at the Obama White House, Singh and Obama talked climate change.

Singh and Obama in Pittsburgh last September

Singh and Obama in Pittsburgh last September

Their joint statement and press conference had strong words on wanting a “successful,” “substantive, “comprehensive” outcome in Copenhagen.

They didn’t utter “legally binding,” for sure; but their statements were pretty strong given the pessimism that has marked the last few weeks of commentary on Copenhagen’s prospects.

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Nov 24

I admit, I’ve been a bit delinquent in following the progress of the Australian cap-and-trade legislation.  The last we covered it was back in August when the Australian Senate rejected Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s original proposal.

Rudd vowed to re-introduce legislation before UN meetings in Copenhagen.  However, if the legislation failed it would trigger an election under Australia’s parliamentary system.  To get legislation passed in the Senate would require making a deal with the climate-unfriendly Liberal Party.

Photo of Kevin Rudd: London Summit

Photo of Kevin Rudd: London Summit

Fast-forward to today.   Rudd announced the details of a compromise bill that has the support of  Liberal leadership.  It is not surprising that the new legislation makes significant concessions to the country’s coal industry,  by doubling the amount of “transition assistance” ($1.5 bn Aus.) to the coal sector.  The legislation also artificially lowers the price of carbon permits that polluters will be required to purchase once the scheme becomes operational in 2011 and it exempts the entire agricultural sector–a significant producer of emissions.

The problem appears that the scheme may not be very effective at providing the needed incentives to reduce emissions domestically.  In addition to the generous aid given to coal companies, there is apparently a very liberal offset provision which will allow Australia’s emitters to satisfy their obligations by purchasing foreign offsets, which are notoriously difficult to regulate from an effectiveness standpoint.

Apparently these subsidies for industry weren’t enough to placate some Liberal opponents of climate legislation.  There appears to be some Liberal stalwarts who want to sack party leader Malcom Turnbull for his capitulation to Rudd.

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Nov 23

It is probably forgivable that we have heard reports over the past two weeks of a potential deal in Copenhagen being nearly unachievable.  Various world leaders–including UN General Secretary Ban Ki Moon–started talking about a “politically binding” deal, then US officials expressed skepticism about achieving something substantive.

It appears, perhaps, that these proclamations were premature and that perhaps the only thing we know for sure is that we won’t know anything until December 18 (the last scheduled day of the negotiations).  Here are a few reasons to suggest that a deal is very much in play in Copenhagen.

  • Emerging economies in the Global South are starting to announce domestic mitigation numbers.  Both South Korea and Brazil have said that they will take action to reduce their emissions from business-as-usual levels by 2020.  This is significant since these countries are not required under the Kyoto architecture to commit to any reductions.
  • The US is now talking about setting provisional emissions mitigation targets.  Unlike the European Union and Japan who have publicized their targets, the US has been quiet.  The rationale from the US negotiating team has been that they don’t want to repeat the Kyoto experience where the US agreed to targets, but they couldn’t get Senate approval to actually make the treaty legally binding.  However,  Todd Stern–the main US climate envoy–broached the idea of presenting targets at Copenhagen based (and perhaps contingent) on the legislation going through Congress.
  • There are other factors that I could cite, but the last one is tremendously important: civil society is refusing to back down.  Dave Turnbull–the head of Climate Action Network-International–has a nice post at Grist.org describing all of the forces coming together in Copenhagen.  His take suggests that the political winds are still in flux, but the political pressure being put on leaders from civil society organizations across the world may be bearing some fruit as more leaders commit to attend the negotiations and the tenor of their statements become less obstructionist.
Nov 23

The New York Times continues its excellent series on US water pollution today with an article on the problems with municipal sewer systems.

The essence of the problem is that older cities like New York have antiquated systems and many newer cities have systems whose capacity is inadequate.  During severe rains the systems can’t process all of the wastewater and consequently dump untreated sewage into lakes and rivers–often in violation of the Clean Water Act.

In areas with combined sewer systems, the problem is exacerbated since these systems route both wastewater and storm runoff to the pipes.  In severe storms, backups can occur and raw sewage can flood basements and buildings.

The EPA gets criticized in the article for not enforcing the law and municipalities are consequently not penalized for their violations.  Although EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson has pledged to get tougher on violators, municipalities argue that the problems they face stem from a lack of resources and investment to improve systems that have been neglected.  Fines would result in money simply going to the Feds that could otherwise be used to improve systems.

It seems that a good model would be to have aggressive federal action, but to place the focus on helping municipalities develop better ways to improve handling their capacity.  For instance, municipalities could adopt stronger regulations on stormwater management for development or offer incentives for water mitigation techniques like green roofs or permeable pavement.

One subtext that doesn’t get explicitly mentioned in the article is climate change.  A major problem with the municipalities discussed in the article is that they are seeing a rise in the number of 100- and 500- year flood events.  This comports with climate change science that suggests more severe storms will occur as the planet gets hotter.  Wastewater treatment, in turn, is generally very energy-intensive.

Thus one could envision that climate change legislation in the US could have adaptation money available for water system upgrades and for mitigation policies.  Green roofs, for instance, decrease runoff and they also act as an insulator, improving a building’s energy efficiency; or substituting permeable pavement in a parking lot could both reduce urban heat island effect and reduce runoff.

It is important to recognize that water quality and climate variation are intimately related.

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Nov 11

The United Nations Environment Programme hosted a meeting of African leaders yesterday in Nairobi to solidify the African position at next month’s UN climate talks.

Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga expressed the grievances of developing countries and implored developed countries to their emissions significantly to stave off the worst effects of climate change.

Odinga mentioned that Kenya was doing its part to combat climate change–in particular by engaging in reforestation projects in the massive Mau forest.

To show their mettle, they announced plans to evict 1,500 “illegal settlers” from the forest who are accused by the government of illegal logging and staying in forest lands without deeds.

I don’t profess to be an expert on internal Kenyan politics, but it appears that the people who are being evicted are members of the Ogiek community–an indigenous group with long-standing presence in the forest who have survived for eons by hunting and gathering.

This is something to watch out for as the climate talks proceed in Copenhagen.  One of the main shortcomings of the Kyoto Protocol was the lack of an adequate forest protection mechanism.  During the current negotiations, a stream of talks centered around reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation [REDD] has been initiated.

The idea behind REDD is that there should be some value placed on protecting forests rather than tearing them down.  This sounds good in theory, but the devil will be in the details.

In many parts of the world, the interests of forest dwellers are not represented in the national capitals making decisions on their behalf.  If forests become “monetized” it will not be surprising to see indigenous folk living in a sustainable manner, like the Ogeik being forced from their homes and being restricted in their traditional use of the forest.

The situation in the Mau forest is complicated, for sure.  The area is supposedly replete with outsiders coming in to log illegally.  But the current struggle of the Ogiek should give pause to REDD negotiators and prompt them to make sure that sustainable forest living is not penalized under any “protection” scheme.

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Nov 11

AFP is reporting that the next few weeks leading up to the UN climate change conference in Copenhagen could be marked by a bilateral diplomatic offensive.

President Obama is going to visit China in the next few days and upon returning to Washington, will host the Indian Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh at the end of the month.

Obviously both countries are important to coming to an agreement in Copenhagen for action on climate change.

Photo: Obama-Biden Transition Project

Photo: Obama-Biden Transition Project

The AFP article also indicates that US Energy Secretary Steven Chu will visit China and India as well to search for common ground.

It will be interesting to see what transpires with the Obama and Chu visits. Since China, in particular, has said that it wants to reduce its carbon intensity in the mid term, it seems that the ball is in Obama’s court to start talking specifics–something he is reluctant to do without legislation passed in Congress.

Perhaps these meetings will help grease the wheels for something significant to transpire in Copenhagen with Obama providing closed-door promises. It is difficult to say, but with these high-profile meetings happening in the days prior to the Copenhagen meeting and the recent feelers that Obama put forth about attending the meeting if it looks like progress can be made, climate change certainly will be on the agenda.

Nov 09

While much of the current discussion surrounding climate policy in the United States tends to focus on Congress writing cap and trade legislation, it is important to note that Obama’s EPA is steadfastly moving along the greenhouse gas regulatory process.

EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson

EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson

Whether this is a deliberate effort to get Congress to act or the EPA under head administrator Lisa Jackson just doing her job is unclear. However, steps taken on the regulatory front could help the Obama Administration next month in its effort to convince other countries that the US is moving on reducing its greenhouse gas emissions.

Today it was reported that the EPA sent to the White House the final scientific finding on the hazards of greenhouse gas emissions. This process began during the Bush Administration when the EPA was sued under the Clean Air Act to make a determination about the hazards of GHGs. If excessive concentrations are found to endanger public health or welfare, the EPA must regulate them.

Hearings were held and comments were taken earlier this year and all that is needed now is basically White House approval of the scientific findings. One the finding is official, that could have wide implications on the regulation and give the EPA unprecedented power to restrict emissions.

Many people argue that EPA regulation may not be the most effective way to engage in economy-wide mitigation–and, in fact, there is currently a debate in Congress on whether to strip the EPA of GHG regulatory power under any cap and trade regime. But, if Congress won’t act, the EPA actions are evidence that the Administration will.

Also on the EPA’s plate is a potential rule that would require large emitters to make upgrades in efficiency to reduce GHG emissions as part of the standard permitting process. For instance, power plants would be required to get up-to-date efficiency technology on a regular basis. This “tailoring rule” would cover sources responsible for about 70% of US emissions, so the mitigation potential could be significant.

The EPA is currently taking public comment on the tailoring rule, which you can look at online. It is interesting to look at the comments–which are generally updated daily–to see what people are thinking and which interest groups are engaged in coordinated campaigning. There are quite a few comments from people cutting and pasting boilerplate text from the National Association of Manufacturers who suggest that the EPA is trying to “regulate your life.”

My favorite so far was from an individual who implored the EPA to “get your jackboots off the throats of the American people!”

There will also be public hearings held next week in Arlington, VA (Wed, Nov.18) and the Chicago suburb of Rosemont (Thurs., Nov. 19). As of this writing, the only speaker who has registered for the Rosemont meeting is, David Sykuta, a registered lobbyist for the Illinois Petroleum Council. Anyone can speak, however, and I don’t think pre-registration is required.

Nov 08

UN climate head, Yvo de Boer, said that 40 world leaders are going to attend the climate talks next month in Copenhagen.

In September, UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown implored his fellow heads of state and government to make the trip to Copenhagen in order to emphasize the importance of the talks and to increase the pressure to come up with a strong deal.

Al Gore has said he thinks President Obama will go, but the White House has been non-committal.

Yvo apparently didn’t release a list, but said the Danish government had told him that 40 world leaders have already said they will be attending the talks.  So that begs the question?  Who are the Copenhagen 40?

We have 1) Brown, 2) Sarkozy…Who else…?

Nov 08

The final talks before December’s  Copenhagen climate summit ended Friday with very little to show.  There is no draft agreement.  According to the BBC, the non-papers that formed the basis of discussions have not been elevated to a negotiating text.  And leaders are talking about a “political” statement coming out of next month’s talks rather than a binding, legal agreement.

The key sticking points remain.  Developing countries want to maintain the legally binding Kyoto Protocol and have legally-binding mitigation commitments from the developed countries.  The US rejects Kyoto and won’t commit to any mitigation numbers in the absence of Congressional action.  The EU has been basically treading water.

Talks on REDD, the forest protection component of the climate talks, apparently resulted in a draft document that excludes an enforcement mechanism.

Finally, G-20 finance ministers failed in their meeting in Scotland this weekend to agree on ways to finance low carbon development and adaptation for developing countries.  The UK estimates that 100 billion Euros annually by 2020 is needed, but the US wouldn’t step up to the table to commit to its share.

With that said, head UN climate official, Yvo de Boer, said that Copenhagen can still produce a strong deal.

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